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Prediction for CME (2025-02-24T07:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-02-24T07:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/37518/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the WNW is SOHO LASCO C2. CME is also seen as a partial halo mostly to the NW in STEREO A COR2 but is obscured by the pylon is SOHO LASCO C3. This CME is very difficult to distinguish from the previous CME in white light imagery. The source is most likely associated with an M3.3 flare from AR 14000 (N17W21) that peaked at 2025-02-24T07:02Z. The flare and a region of dimming projected south of the flare are seen across SDO AIA and GOES SUVI wavelengths but are best seen in SDO AIA 193. There also appears to be some western deflection. CME arrival characterized by an increase in B_total from approx. 10nT to a maximum of 20nT at 2025-02-26T12:31Z. This CME possibly interacted with a coronal hole high speed stream, impacting the arrival time. The coronal hole high speed onset was seen at L1 at 2025-02-26T12:36Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-02-26T05:26Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.67

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-02-27T02:30Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-02-24 12:11
 - Time at C2: 2025-02-24 07:00
 - Radial speed: 593.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 45 deg
 - Eruption location: N13W29
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 583.90 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2025-02-27 02:30 (i.e. predicted transit time: 67.50 hours)
Lead Time: 9.93 hour(s)
Difference: -21.07 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2025-02-25T19:30Z
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